Recently, we’ve dug deep into state-level numbers to understand the different dynamics of junior golf in various geographies, climates, and population sizes. Let’s dive in:

An analysis like this can be done from two perspectives: First, raw numbers. Second, per capita. We will look at both.

We can normalize data by using a ‘per capita’ approach, since population size varies so drastically across the country. One state might have more top-500 players than any other state (looking at raw numbers), but benefit from having 2x as many juniors in their junior golf population. By normalizing for population size (looking at per capita), we can compare junior programs across the country equally. Here’s what we found:

The Best - Raw Numbers

Before we jump into ‘per capita’ data, let’s just look at the raw numbers. Where do the best junior golfers live, strictly looking at which states represent the highest percentage of Top-500 junior golfers:

1. California

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. North Carolina

5. Georgia

We’ve posted these numbers before. Texas, Florida, and California have always been the undisputed leaders of finding Tier 1 junior talent. The fact that 31% of ranked junior golfers in America are found in these three states gives them the population advantage.

The Best - Per Capita

Alright, let’s now add a nuance to ‘The Best’ category. Where do the best junior golfers live if we normalize for population and look at who has the most talent in the 95th percentile relative to other states:

1. Texas

2. Florida

3. Alabama

4. California

5. Virginia

Texas, Florida, and California continue to be in the top-5, but we now have two additional states in Alabama and Virginia showing their strength (with Utah and Georgia just missing out on the Top-5).

Texas has the most junior golfers by a wide margin, but they also have the largest spread of talent from 1st to 99th percentile.

The Best ‘Rank and File’ - Per Capita

Let’s look at the ‘rank and file’ of each junior program. These are juniors who fall between the 25th and 75th percentiles of talent in their respective state. Which states have the strongest rank and file:

1. Arkansas

2. Kansas

3. Idaho

4. North Carolina

5. Utah

What’s another way of understanding this? The average talent in Arkansas is stronger than the average talent in any other state. Or said even another way, if you were to watch a random state-level tournament in Arkansas, you would see a better display of golf collectively at that event than a state-level tournament in any other place.

The Best ‘Top-to-Bottom’ - Per Capita

Let’s try and find which state has the strongest golf population, from top to bottom. Looking at every point of a state’s junior golf population, from the 1st percentile to the 99th, which states have the best overall, or collective, junior golf talent at every point in the spectrum (remember, this is normalized for population)?

1. North Carolina

2. Utah

3. Alabama

4. Arkansas

5. Virginia

This analysis considers the best who are ranked in the 99th percentile, beginners who ranked in the 1st percentile, and everyone in between. Remember, some states have better Top-Tier talent (Florida, Texas, and California) while others have more consistent ‘Rank and File’ or Beginner-Tier talent. No two states look the same.

Slicing the data every which way can provide different insights. Raw numbers and Per Capita numbers provide different views and insights and both are useful.

Click into this graph to see the states by Top-Tier talent (from left-to-right) using a ‘box and whiskers’ graph. The ‘box’ portion represents the average and the ‘whiskers’ 99th and 1st percentiles. Lower on the graph is better.

Summary

With perhaps the exception of one or two states that are defying the odds, the top junior golf talent in the United States absolutely prefers good-weather states, whether you look at raw numbers or per capita numbers. Obviously, this makes sense and you gain a huge advantage being able to play year-round.

If you’re interested in more details related to this data, email us at [email protected]. This post could have been 3x as long with all the ways we could have analyzed the state-level data, so if you have questions, reach out.

Our mission is to fuel better decisions, lower scores, and epic days on the golf course. We’re about 4-6 weeks away from junior tournaments really starting to pick up across the country!

Rankings are updated: http://tugr.org

Thanks,

Jeff